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AGEING AND EMPLOYMENT POLICIES: GERMANY – ISBN-92-64-012737 © OECD 2005 CHAPTER 1. THE CHALLENGE AHEAD – 43 These scenarios illustrate how important it will be for Germany’s future economic potential to keep older workers in the labour force longer and to a much larger degree, and to raise participation rates of underrepresented groups, especially women and perhaps also young adults. The Maximum scenario shows how much scope there is for policy and institutional settings that could influence labour force participation rates and retirement behaviour.

By around 2035, the share of the elderly aged 65 years and over in the total population, for example, is projected to increase from its current 18% to 30%. Despite considerable uncertainty about the future course of fertility, mortality and migration, age structure projections are robust even in a 30-year perspective, because it is the current age structure of the population that primarily determines changes. 1). The ageing of the total potential workforce will be most pronounced between 2007 and 2020, when the share of those over age 50 will increase from 30% to 39%.

Migration flows between the New and Old Länder, 1989-2003 Outflow, inflow and balance in persons (rounded to 1 000) Outflow from East to West Inflow from West to East Balance for the New Länder 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 388 395 250 199 172 163 168 166 168 182 196 214 192 177 155 5 36 80 111 119 136 143 152 157 152 152 153 94 96 97 -383 -359 -170 -88 -53 -27 -25 -14 -11 -30 -44 -61 -98 -81 -58 Sum 1989-2003 Sum 1991-2003 3 185 2 402 1 683 1 642 -1 502 -760 Source: German Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt).

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