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By Heinz Wanner, Martin Grosjean, Regine Röthlisberger, Elena Xoplaki

Heinz Wanner is the top of the weather learn workforce and Director of the NCRR administration Center.

Martin Grosjean is

Regine Rothlisberger is a technological know-how Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

Elena Xoplaki is a technology Officer with the NCCR weather administration Center.

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Dkl Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Coauthors (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40 year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471 Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Williamson DL, Rasch PJ (1998) The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3. J Clim 11:1131–1149 Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, Coauthors (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteor Soc 77:437–471 Latif M, Roeckner E, Botzet M, Esch M, Haak H, Hagemann S, Jungclaus J, Legutke S, Marsland S, Mikolajewicz U (2004) Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with sea surface temperature.

The ENSO phenomenon consists of a coupled interplay between the atmosphere and ocean. It is associated with a see-saw in atmospheric pressure between the eastern and western Pacific and the occurrence of warm ocean-temperature anomalies in the upper few hundred Springer Climatic Change (2006) 79:31–63 33 meters of the eastern and central tropical Pacific. Marked shifts in weather conditions, in particular precipitation patterns, are associated with ENSO and are not only located in the central Pacific, but also over adjacent continents (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994) and in more removed regions around the globe (Diaz and Markgraf 2000).

E. modulated by natural climate variability. Type III arises from the fact that the representation of the climate system in a weather or climate model is inevitably incomplete and inadequate. g. due to resolution or due to our limited knowledge of the relevant processes and (iii) the non-linear interactions between climate components themselves. The complexity of the climate system (type II) and the model imperfection (type III) are thus intimately linked. For type III uncertainty due to an imperfect knowledge of processes can be exemplified by the estimation of the radiative forcing.

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